A graph deep learning method for landslide displacement prediction based on global navigation satellite system positioning

The accurate prediction of displacement is crucial for landslide deformation monitoring and early warning. This study focuses on a landslide in Wenzhou Belt Highway and proposes a novel multivariate landslide displacement prediction method that relies on graph deep learning and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning. First model the graph structure of the monitoring system based on the engineering positions of the GNSS monitoring points and build the adjacent matrix of graph nodes. Then construct the historical and predicted time series feature matrixes using the processed temporal data including GNSS displacement, rainfall, groundwater table and soil moisture content and the graph structure. Last introduce the state-of-the-art graph deep learning GTS (Graph for Time Series) model to improve the accuracy and reliability of landslide displacement prediction which utilizes the temporal-spatial dependency of the monitoring system. This approach outperforms previous studies that only learned temporal features from a single monitoring point and maximally weighs the prediction performance and the priori graph of the monitoring system. The proposed method performs better than SVM, XGBoost, LSTM and DCRNN models in terms of RMSE (1.35 mm), MAE (1.14 mm) and MAPE (0.25) evaluation metrics, which is provided to be effective in future landslide failure early warning.