Recharge and vulnerability assessment of groundwater resources in North west India: Insights from isotope-geospatial modelling approach

Recent studies indicate dwindling groundwater quantity and quality of the largest regional aquifer system in North West India, raising concern over freshwater availability to about 182 million population residing in this region. Widespread agricultural activities have resulted severe groundwater pollution in this area, demanding a systematic vulnerability assessment for proactive measures. Conventional vulnerability assessment models encounter drawbacks due to subjectivity, complexity, data-prerequisites, and spatial-temporal constraints. This study incorporates isotopic information into a weighted-overlay framework to overcome the above-mentioned limitations and proposes a novel vulnerability assessment model. The isotope methodology provides crucial insights on groundwater recharge mechanisms (¹⁸O and ²H) and dynamics (³H) - often ignored in vulnerability assessment. Isotopic characterisation of precipitation helped in establishing Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL) as well as inferring contrasting recharge mechanisms operating in different aquifers. Shallow aquifer (depth < 60 m) showed significant evaporative signature with evaporation loss accounting up to 18.04% based on Rayleigh distillation equations. Inter-aquifer connections were apparent from Kernel Density Estimate (KDE) and isotope correlations. A weighted overlay isotope-geospatial model was developed combining ¹⁸O, ³H, aquifer permeability, and water level data. The central and northern parts of study area fall under least (0.29%) and extremely (1.79%) vulnerable zones respectively, while majority of the study area fall under moderate (42.71%) and highly vulnerable zones (55.20%). Model validation was performed using groundwater NO₃^- concentration, which showed an overall accuracy up to 82%. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) was performed for sensitivity analysis and permeability was found to be the most sensitive input parameter, followed by ³H, ¹⁸O, and water level. Comparing the vulnerability map with Land Use Land Cover (LULC) and population density maps helped in precisely identifying the high-risk sites, warranting a prompt attention. The model developed in this study integrates isotopic information with vulnerability assessment and resulted in model output with good accuracy, scientific basis, and widespread relevance, which highlights its crucial role in formulating proactive water resource management plans, especially in less explored data-scarce locations.